On Monday, I posted my predictions for the National Book Award for Fiction Longlist. Today, for the Nonfiction list.
In case you missed my last post, this is a little game I’m playing inspired by the
hosts, but with the scoring set to Easy mode for mortals like me who don’t make book content as a full-time job.Instead I work to put the authors in front of their local fans to bring their books to life. Over the last two years, the Tucson Festival of Books has hosted at least 10 who were named to the NBA lists. Pretty special!
Anatomy of the List
As far as I can tell, intentional or not, there’s a structure to the NBA Nonfiction longlist that goes something like this:
Half the list (5) split between History, with flavors of regional/ethnic American studies, and Sociological analysis which often includes at least one book about sweeping miscarriage of the justice system;
an essay collection;
two personal memoirs;
a book about either Natural Resources/Environment OR Art/Culture— don’t get too crazy;
The Political Man Bio or a *Wildcard
*In a Wildcard year (approximately every 3-4 years), there will be no Political Man Bio deemed suitable for the list. 😱
Lest the pile collapse under lack of a recognizable token leader—someone who has never been mistaken as someone’s admin assistant or member of the catering staff at an awards ceremony—a book of academic lectures by an Ivy league professor or a history book about a topic primarily of interest to the dad book market might be added to the list to steady the pile of rabble-rousers.
I’m kidding. Sort of.
My predictions
Nonfiction makes up about 20-25% of my reading. Because I don’t follow the new releases as closely as I do for fiction, I rely on the National Book Award, PEN/Galbraith and Pulitzer Prize lists to help me make my selections.
After each list announcement, I usually buy one selection in hardback and others I’ll add to my audiobook cue. At some point the pileup will reach a tipping point and I’ll do something about it, like creating my Reading Prizeworthy Nonfiction list last June.
Based on a combination of the formula above plus my own ability to squint and imagine shelling out for a hardback copy of any of these titles next week, I’ve come up with the following predictions of the National Book Award for Nonfiction longlist.
Book links
Sure choice +/-10
Knife: Meditations After an Attempted Murder by Salman Rushdie
Most confident +/-3
The Furies: Women, Vengenance and Justice by Elizabeth Flock
The Black Box: Writing on the Race by Henry Louis Gates
There’s Always This Year: On Basketball and Asencion by Hanif Abdurraqib
Medium confident +/-2
Everyone Who Is Gone Is Here: The United States, Central America and the Making of a Crisis by Jonathan Blitzer
The Barn: The Secret History of a Murder in Mississippi by Wright Thompson
I Heard Her Call My Name: A Memoir of Transition by Lucy Santa
Less confident
Madness: Race and Insanity in a Jim Crow Asylum
Antonia Hylton
Whiskey Tender: A Memoir
Deborah Jackson Taffa
The Editor: How Publishing Legend Judith Jones Shaped Culture in America
Sara B. Franklin
A Wildcard Year
There’s a new biography out of Ronald Reagan that seems like it would fit the Political Man Bio slot perfectly but given this is an election year, I’m predicting the judges will give us a *wildcard year. Henry Louis Gates can be the alpha male of my list.
Update: My score = 0
The NBA Instgram story suggests the New Yorker announced the longest 2 p.m. ET September 12. Congratulations to all those selected, especially those authors who also so generously also post on Substack so we can read their new thoughts as they form and peek behind the scenes of their genius.
And my score is:
+10 for Knife: Meditations After an Attempted Murder by
+3 for There’s Always This Year: On Basketball and Asencion by
+1 for Whiskey Tender: A Memoir by Deborah Jackson Taffa
-14 for 7 wrong answers = a perfect, glorious 0
So wrong, but so right
I got the score I deserved for trying to guess which books would merit the attention of the lauded judges of this contest based on the cover copy, my assumptions about what kind of subject matter makes the list, and buzz.
Here are the seven titles I did not predict grouped together by their place in the anatomy I had reverse engineered from recent lists. While I like the titles on my list, there are several here I’m equally excited about (denoted by *), especially knowing they’ve been added to this list by literal annointed geniuses who have actually read them.
History/Sociology, Ethnic/Regional Lens
A Great Disorder: National Myth and the Battle for America by Richard Slotkin
*Soldiers and Kings: Survival and Hope in the World of Human Smuggling by Jason De León
*Our Moon: How Earth’s Celestial Companion Transformed the Planet, Guided Evolution, and Made Us Who We Are by Rebecca Boyle of
Circle of Hope: A Reckoning with Love, Power, and Justice in an American Church by Eliza Griswold
Essays
*Magical/Realism: Essays on Music, Memory, Fantasy, and Borders by Vanessa Angélica Villarreal
Personal Memoir
*Unshrinking: How to Face Fatphobia by
ofNatural Resources/Environment OR Art/Culture
*The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives by Ernest Schneider.
The Political Man Bio
I don’t think any of these quite fit, though Slotkin comes close. I’m not mad! Double wildcard year, with both culture and natural resources books on the list. Maybe we’re ready to turn a corner so we can have nice things in ’Merica.
In conclusion
As a middle-aged person living in an attention economy, I expect I’ve got only 1500 or so books left to read in my lifetime should I be so lucky as to live to the max. Considering this, the National Book Awards more than pay back my investment of attention by helping to narrow my focus.
Speaking of that, thanks for giving some of your attention to my silly game. I hope it’s paid you back by helping you find something worthwhile to add to your reading experience as well.
Thanks for reading— now go pick up a book, even if it’s just for five minutes!
Let me know: which of these sound good to you?
Cheers,
Abra
Would Salman Rushdie not count as a 'Political Man'? Intrigued by your categories here!