Hello Readers.
As I teased last week, I’m playing along with the
hosts’ attempts to guess the National Book Award in fiction longlist, which will be announced in the New Yorker later this week.A simplified scoring system
I found the scoring system
and are using to be a bit Byzantine. It’s like they think knowing about new releases is their job or something. I’ve simplified it for the rest of us.The book you’re most confident will show up on the list is worth 10 points if it makes it. And -10 if not.
Choose three high confidence titles for +/-3 points each
Choose three medium confidence titles for +/-2 points each
Add three wild cards, dark horses, underdogs for +/- 1 point each
Maximum score: 28. Minimum score: -28
It’s not too late to submit your own guess. I had said 9/9 at 11:59, but then I realized the Fiction list won’t be announced until Friday, September 13. So have at it until Thursday, if you want.
My thought process
This was tough— it feels like it has been a great year for new books and also that many of the most anticipated are just now coming out. Full disclosure: I have not read all the books on this list.
I’m guessing which the judges will choose based on:
what I know about the themes and concerns that interest them from their own books or blurbs they’ve given other books
the authors’ history with the prize in past years and
my intuition based on criticism I’ve read. Because as you know, reading about books is an entirely distinct hobby from reading actual books.
My 10 predictions
Perhaps seeing this list will convince you to give it a try, because there are many favorites I did not include. Here, in brief are some notes about my thought process.
*James by Percival Everett has been both a critics’ and readers’ favorite this year. Yes, it will also be ironic if the award goes to a writer who has spoofed a similar literary prize in his other most famous work. This is the acceptance speech I want to hear.
*Martyr! by Kaveh Akbar has the combination of weighty subject matter, stylish writing, and meta-commentary on the making of art that scream “give me a prize already!” I don’t see how it could be left off the list.
Wandering Stars by Tommy Orange. The fact that it’s deeply related to Orange’s previous book There There might work against it. But its weaving together of a family’s generations of trauma with the aftermath of a present day mass shooting makes it simultaneously hyper-relevant to now and a historical epic that shows how this place might be “more than its accumulated pain.”
Small Rain by
. Maybe this is recency bias, but a cover of Poets & Writers and various other profiles in prominent media signal to me that this book has the attention of the literati. Greenwell and others have discussed excerpts of this novel on Substack recently, and the reader buzz is high as well. It’s still on my to be read pile and it moves up a notch with each highlight I read.
*Creation Lake by Rachel Kushner. Like James and Wandering Stars, Creation Lake has already been named to the Booker Prize longlist. I agree with the critics who have suggested that Kushner’s one of our great American novelists and so any new book she has out is going to get my attention. I have it in my moderate confidence list because this one is not set in the USA, and while that’s not official criteria for the national prize, the trend for this prize leans toward U.S. settings.
Someone Like Us by Dinaw Mengstu. Until now, this list was light on immigrant stories, which for good reason tend to be among the contenders for the NBA. While there are several other possible rivals meeting this bar, I think this one has a flavor of family secrets plus a road trip that might appeal to this panel.
Though I’m one of the readers who will buy any book Erdrich puts out, I’m listing The Mighty Red as a medium confidence choice because it’s a sequel to The Beet Queen, which I think is not her most beloved work. Also, because Erdrich has won the award previously for The Round House, a true masterpiece, I wonder if this might set the bar higher for her to be considered again. Her work was not popular enough with her colleagues to make the recent “100 Best Books of the 21st Century” in the New York Times and the NBA in recent years has snubbed some well-known writers. We’ll see if the tastes of this panel include masterful writers of the previous century.
Poor Deer by Clare Oshetsky is my shot in the dark. Recent NBA longlists have included under-the-radar titles from smaller imprints. This one is on the quieter side but also quite memorable and unique and writerly. Oshetsky’s previous book was longlisted for the PEN/Faulkner award and they won the William Saroyan International Prize for Writing as well.
Here’s where I really started to feel torn. With only two spots left, I found myself thinking about which books I want to make the list. Beautyland is one I haven’t written about on the ol’ blog yet, because I’m saving it to build a themed list around when the mood strikes. But I found it quite charming and heartbreaking and I’m rooting for Marie-Helene Bertino.
I had All Fours by Miranda July in this spot until the last minute but although I really loved it, something tells me this panel might not be so moved. It’s certainly a polarizing choice, and I’m predicting a snub. I hope I’m wrong, unless it means Taffy Brodesser-Akner gets to fill the gap. I think Long Island Compromise is another underdog deserving a mention. Fleischman’s in Trouble was previously longlisted for this prize and I would not be surprised to see this readable novel of deep psychological insight also make the cut.
Update: My score = 2
You can find the full list here at The New Yorker, but only the three *starred books above in my list were included in the official longlist. I’m excited to check out new books from authors new to me, especially Catalina by Karla Cornejo Villavicencio and Rejection by
. Check out this interview he did with of .So tell me…
Which book will you be astounded to see get a snub this year?
What’s your dark horse pick?
Don’t you want to play along? Give it a try and if you win ( and remember— I have not yet read half of these on my list so what the hell do I even know?), I’ll make you a nice graphic using
’s 10 book template you can post for bragging rights!
I haven’t read any of these (yet), but I did read Erasure this year. So my vote is for James for the same reason as yours 😁
Abra, I love this and am following along. Unfortunately I know next to nothing about new releases so I would be horrible at this game but I am so appreciative of being exposed to some newer works that I will likely check out. Thanks!